Tariffs, Earnings, and Economic Signals
Week Ending July 18, 2025
Markets were mixed last week, battling through tariff headlines while responding to upbeat corporate earnings and a trove of economic updates.
Despite volatility, the Nasdaq led the way on the back of chipmaker momentum and tech enthusiasm, while the broader market moved cautiously higher.
Market Overview
Weekly Performance (July 14–18, 2025)
S&P 500: +0.59%
Nasdaq Composite: +1.51%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: –0.07%
MSCI EAFE (International Developed Markets): –0.46%
TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange): –0.32%
Economic News
All three major U.S. indexes posted modest gains to start the week as investors appeared to shrug off tough talk on trade from the White House over the weekend.
Stocks briefly pulled back after inflation data showed prices warming up in June—though the results were largely in line with economists' expectations. A chip-led rally helped lift markets later in the session after a mega-cap semiconductor company announced it had received assurances from the White House regarding continued business with China, pushing the Nasdaq higher.
The S&P 500 continued to climb midweek, closing at another record high, as several companies reported better-than-expected earnings and consumer spending showed signs of recovery.
Markets drifted slightly lower on Friday despite news that consumer sentiment rose to its highest level since February. Encouragingly, the sentiment report also indicated a drop in concerns about tariff-induced inflation.
Splitting the Difference: Inflation & Consumers
Two key themes emerged from last week’s economic data: inflation and the consumer.
- Inflation:
June’s inflation data painted a mixed picture. Consumer prices rose at a 2.7% annual rate, higher than May’s 2.4%, raising some concerns. However, wholesale inflation remained flat, suggesting tariffs may not yet be significantly impacting supply chain costs. - Consumer Strength:
Retail sales rebounded in June, providing support to the broader economy. While spending levels remain below year-end highs, consumer sentiment improved, reaching the best level since February.
Key Economic Reports: Week Ahead (July 21–25, 2025)
Monday, July 21
- Leading Economic Indicators
Tuesday, July 22
- Fed Chair Powell: Banking Conference Speech
- Fed Official Michelle Bowman: Economic Outlook Remarks
Wednesday, July 23
- Existing Home Sales
- Treasury Buyback
Thursday, July 24
- Weekly Jobless Claims
- Services & Manufacturing PMI
- New Home Sales
- Fed Balance Sheet Update
Friday, July 25
- Durable Goods Orders
Corporate Earnings: This Week
Monday
- Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)
Tuesday
- The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
- Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)
- RTX Corporation (RTX)
- Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)
- Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG)
- Danaher Corporation (DHR)
- Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
Wednesday
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOG/GOOGL)
- Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
- International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)
- T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS)
- ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW)
- AT&T Inc. (T)
- Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO)
- NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)
- Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX)
- GE Vernova Inc. (GEV)
- Amphenol Corporation (APH)
- CME Group Inc. (CME)
Thursday
- Honeywell International Inc. (HON)
- Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
- Blackstone Inc. (BX)
- Intel Corporation (INTC)
“All of us have to learn how to invent our lives, make them up, imagine them. We need to be taught these skills; we need guides to show us how. If we don't, our lives get made up for us by other people.”
– Ursula K. Le Guin
A man leaves home and makes three left turns. He comes home again and sees two masked men waiting for him, but he jogs straight toward them with a smile as others cheer. Why is this man so unafraid?
Last Week's Riddle: Seven people stand in a square room measuring 30' x 30'. Each can see the entire room and everyone in it without making any physical movement (aside from eye movement). Where inside this room can you place an apple so that all but one person can see it?
Answer: Place the apple atop one person's head.
A friendly and competitive Catan game straight from Savary Island.
Footnotes and Sources
1. WSJ.com, July 18, 2025
2. Investing.com, July 18, 2025
3. CNBC.com, July 14, 2025
4. WSJ.com, July 15, 2025
5. CNBC.com, July 16, 2025
6. CNBC.com, July 17, 2025
7. CNBC.com, July 18, 2025
8. WSJ.com, July 15, 2025
9. MarketWatch.com, July 16, 2025
10. MarketWatch.com, July 17, 2025
11. IRS.gov, January 15, 2025
12. Greatist.com, March 18, 2025
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