Stocks Rise Despite Shutdown Concerns
Week Ending October 3, 2025
Stocks advanced last week, as investors looked past the U.S. government shutdown and focused instead on resilient corporate earnings and expectations that any disruption would be short-lived.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.08%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.32%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.10%. Overseas, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed international markets, climbed 2.53%. Closer to home, Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index added 0.30%, led by strength in energy and materials.
Market Overview
Weekly Market Performance (September 29 – October 3, 2025)
- S&P 500: +1.08%
- Nasdaq Composite: +1.32%
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.10%
- MSCI EAFE (International Developed Markets): +2.53%
- S&P/TSX Composite Index (Canada): +0.30%
U.S. Markets: Resilient Amid Shutdown
Markets opened strong on Monday despite uncertainty over government funding. As the shutdown deadline passed, investors initially reacted with caution, but stocks quickly bounced back on expectations the disruption would be temporary.
The S&P 500 pushed above 6,700 for the first time, and all three major indexes ended the week at record highs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments that GDP growth could take a hit briefly tempered enthusiasm, but optimism carried through to the close.
A delayed U.S. jobs report due to the shutdown added to the unease, though ADP’s private payrolls data showing job losses kept investors on edge.
Canada & the TSX
The S&P/TSX Composite Index gained 0.3% for the week, supported by resource sectors:
- Energy (+2.4%): Rising oil prices boosted Canadian producers.
- Materials (+3.9%): Metals and mining stocks advanced on strong global demand.
- Financials (flat): Banks and insurers held steady.
- Industrials (slightly lower): Transportation and infrastructure dipped.
- Technology (−2.7%): Canadian tech names mirrored U.S. weakness.
The Canadian dollar softened against the U.S. dollar, helping exporters but highlighting broader currency volatility.
Economic Snapshot
- Jobs Report Delay: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed its monthly jobs release.
- ADP Data: Private payrolls showed a decline of 32,000 jobs versus expectations for growth, reinforcing labor market slowdown concerns.
- Investor Sentiment: Despite shutdown worries, markets appeared more focused on the economy’s resilience and corporate earnings outlooks.
Key Economic Reports: Week Ahead (October 6 – 10, 2025)
Tuesday, October 7
- U.S. Trade Deficit (Goods & Services)
- Consumer Credit
- Fed Speakers: Bostic, Bowman, Miran, Kashkari
Wednesday, October 8
- Fed Speakers: Musalem, Barr, Kashkari
- FOMC Meeting Minutes
- 10-Year Treasury Auction
Thursday, October 9
- Weekly Jobless Claims
- Wholesale Inventories
- Fed Balance Sheet
- Fed Speakers: Powell, Bowman, Kashkari, Barr
Friday, October 10
- Consumer Sentiment
- U.S. Federal Budget
- Fed Speaker: Goolsbee
Corporate Earnings: This Week
Thursday, October 9
- PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)
“Science is the great antidote to the poison of enthusiasm and superstition.”
– Adam Smith
It flies, but has no wings. It slips away, but cannot be held in the hand. What is it?
Last Week's Riddle: Name the three English-language three-letter words that begin and end with the letter E.
Answer: Eve, ewe, and eye.
Holy cow....Melissa is in Ireland.
Footnotes and Sources
1. WSJ.com, October 3, 2025
2. Investing.com, October 3, 2025
3. CNBC.com, September 29, 2025
4. CNBC.com, September 30, 2025
5. WSJ.com, October 1, 2025
6. CNBC.com, October 2, 2025
7. CNBC.com, October 3, 2025
8. WSJ.com, October 1, 2025
9. IRS.gov, May 29, 2025
10. Cooking Classy, June 11, 2025
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