Markets Navigate Volatility as Energy Prices Rise

Week Ending March 13, 2026

Oil prices surged, geopolitical tensions intensified, and markets reminded investors that short-term volatility is never far away.

Last week provided a clear example of how quickly global headlines can ripple through financial markets. As tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about global energy supply, investors began reassessing the potential impact on inflation, interest rates, and economic growth.

While the headlines were dramatic at times, the market moves largely reflected investors adjusting to new information rather than a fundamental shift in the broader economic outlook.

Market Overview

Weekly Market Performance (March 9, 2026 to March 13, 2026)

• S&P 500: -1.60%
• Nasdaq Composite: -1.26%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.99%
• MSCI EAFE International Developed Markets: -2.28%
• S&P/TSX Composite Index: -1.40%

U.S. markets finished the week lower as investors remained cautious amid geopolitical developments and rising oil prices.

Canadian markets also declined modestly, although the TSX held up slightly better than some global peers. Canada’s market often reacts differently during periods of rising oil prices because of the strong weighting of energy companies within the index.

Middle East Developments Drive Market Volatility

Markets began the week under pressure as tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about disruptions to global energy supply. Reports that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—one of the most important oil shipping routes in the world—had slowed pushed oil prices higher and added to market uncertainty.

Early in the week, stocks initially declined as energy prices climbed. However, markets recovered later in the day after comments from the White House suggested the conflict could potentially resolve sooner than expected.

On Tuesday, markets again opened lower but regained some ground after reports that several countries, including the United States, were discussing a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves to help stabilize supply.

For much of the middle of the week, markets traded in a relatively narrow range as investors digested the latest economic data and waited for additional clarity on the geopolitical situation.

Oil Prices Move to the Spotlight

By the end of the week, energy markets became the central focus.

Oil prices reached new record closing highs as concerns about potential supply disruptions continued. Investors grew increasingly cautious about the possibility that sustained higher energy prices could slow global economic growth and push inflation higher.

Bond yields also moved higher during the week as markets began considering whether elevated energy prices could delay interest rate cuts that many investors had been expecting later this year.

Canada and the TSX

Canadian markets declined modestly during the week, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index falling approximately 1.4 percent.

Energy stocks helped support the Canadian market as oil prices surged, while financials and industrial companies experienced some weakness alongside global markets.

Sector Snapshot

• Energy strengthened as oil prices moved higher
• Financials softened alongside global markets
• Industrials experienced moderate pressure
• Technology remained somewhat volatile

Canadian investors are also watching how sustained increases in oil prices could influence inflation and the future path of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada.

While higher energy prices can benefit parts of Canada’s economy, they can also contribute to inflation pressures if they remain elevated for an extended period.

Inflation Remains in Focus

Amid the geopolitical headlines, investors also paid close attention to several key inflation reports.

Midweek data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained steady compared with the prior year, offering some reassurance that inflation pressures may be stabilizing.

Later in the week, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, indicated that price pressures remain somewhat sticky. Markets largely took the report in stride since it reflected economic conditions prior to the most recent geopolitical developments.

What Is Driving the Market

Several themes shaped trading last week:

• Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
• Rising oil prices and energy market disruptions
• Persistent inflation concerns
• Uncertainty around the timing of interest rate cuts

Markets tend to become especially sensitive when geopolitical events intersect with energy markets, as higher oil prices can ripple through inflation, economic growth, and central bank policy expectations.

Why This Matters

Markets continue to navigate an environment where geopolitical risks, inflation trends, and central bank policy are all interacting at the same time.

Periods like this can increase short-term volatility, but they are also a normal part of investing. Historically, markets have experienced many episodes driven by geopolitical events, yet long-term investment strategies have continued to reward patient investors.

Moments like these often reinforce the value of maintaining diversified portfolios and focusing on long-term financial goals rather than reacting to short-term headlines.

Economic Snapshot

Looking ahead, investors will continue watching how the geopolitical situation evolves and whether energy prices remain elevated.

Key areas to monitor include:

• Inflation trends
• Central bank commentary
• Energy market developments
• Employment data
• Corporate earnings outlook

Energy markets in particular may continue to influence investor sentiment in the weeks ahead.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday, March 16th

• Industrial Production
• Capacity Utilization

Tuesday, March 17th 

• Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (Day 1)
• Pending Home Sales
• Homebuilder Confidence

Wednesday, March 18th

• Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (Day 2)
• Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Factory Orders
• FOMC Interest Rate Decision
• Fed Chair Press Conference

Thursday, March 19th

• Weekly Jobless Claims
• Wholesale Inventories
• New Home Sales

Friday, March 20th

• Employment Cost Index

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Wednesday, March 18th

• Micron Technology (MU)

Thursday, March 19th 

• FedEx Corporation (FDX)

"There is no better compass than compassion."
- Amanda Gorman

As I age, my height changes, but not my importance. Your hand guides me, and I help articulate what you want to say. When we part, I am not important or useful to you. What am I?

^{Last Week's Riddle: It can be measured despite lacking length, width, or height. What is it?
Answer: Temperature.}

Melissa and Doug at the top of Mount Benson.

Footnotes and Sources

1. WSJ.com, March 13, 2026
2. Investing.com, March 13, 2026
3. CNBC.com, March 9, 2026
4. CNBC.com, March 10, 2026
5. CNBC.com, March 11, 2026
6. WSJ.com, March 12, 2026
7. WSJ.com, March 13, 2026
8. CNBC.com, March 11, 2026
9. WSJ.com, March 13, 2026
10. IRS.gov, June 10, 2025
11. EatThis.com, August 27, 2025

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